Joseph Zisels
SOME ASPECTS OF MIGRATIONS OF THE JEWS OF UKRAINE

1.
Unfortunately, the statistics of migrations of the Jews of Ukraine has obtained the exact figure basement only for the last years. Therefore, we've had to define all previous migrations waves using different indirect or more common factors, in particular, using extrapolation of figures relating to migrations of the Jews of the USSR. But even these figures don't give the full impression about the processes interesting us, because the statistics of this category of migrants to the USA has been made only from 1965, to Germany - from 1993, to other countries - this kind of statistics doesn't exist at all.
Additional factors which make our task more difficult is that both the migrations of the Jews of Ukraine to the Eastern regions of the USSR in the 50-80ies and the arrival of the Jews to Ukraine from these regions between 1987 and 1992 are very little investigated.
The mentioned problems along with other ones prevent us from the definition even approximately the present number of the "extended population" of the Jews of Ukraine because the different figures wave between 150 and 750 thousands.
Doing the extrapolation of the emigration quantity indexes from the USSR to Ukraine we'll use the factor 1/3.

2.

In 80ies of XIX around 4 millions the Jews lived in Russian Empire. Statistics of the emigration following the wave of pogroms in the period before the First World War started, naturally, doesn't separates the regions of the exodus in the modern borders, but it's known that approximately every third Jew of Russia lived in the South-Western Region and Novorossia (the territory between Caucasus and Donetsk region), every forth one - in the Polish Kingdom.
In the end of 19th beginning of 20th century the number of the Jewish population of the Eastern Ukraine kept growing: in 1897 it was 1 870 thousands (41.3% of the Jewish population of the Russian Empire, 9.4% of all population of Ukraine).

Table 1. Emigration of the Jews from the Russian Empire and "Ukraine" (extrapolation) in 1881 - 1914

The table1 shows:
- the every third Jew of the "Ukraine" left it in this period;
- almost 80% of the Jewish emigrants vent to the USA;
- in spite of the high national and religious motivation of that time only around 2% of the Jewish emigrants from the Russian Empire, and correspondently, the "Ukraine", vent to the Erez-Israel.

The First Alijah (1882 - 1903) numbered around 25 thousands people and consisted of the persons and the small groups, which left for the Palestine mainly under the influence of the first Zionist organizations of the Russian Empire.
The poverty and the fear before new pogroms induced to emigrate the tens thousands of the Jews from the Eastern Ukraine. In the beginning of the 90ies of XIX the emigration of the Jews from the Eastern Ukraine became mass: daily 300 - 400 people left the territory of the Russian Empire, directed mainly to the USA, but also to UK, Argentine, Canada and other countries.
The Second Alijah (1904 - 1914) - around 40 thousands people - consisted mainly of the inhabitants from the Eastern Europe and the Russian Empire, who at first were the hireling workers in agriculture cooperatives and in cities. The First World War interrupted this Alijah.

3.
From the beginning of XX century the annual emigration from the Russian Empire began exceed the natality of the Jewish population. It meant that the maximal number of the Jews in the Empire was around in 1905 - 5.5 millions and then steadily decreased.
According to the Israeli sources the "Jewish emigration" from the USSR to Palestine for the period from 1919 till 14.05.1948 made up at 52 350 people, therefore the "contribution of Ukraine" in that emigration wave was around 17-20 thousands.
It's interesting that on the elections of the deputies to the All-Russian Jewish Convention that took place in the end of January 1918 the Zionists got 2/3 of the votes (in Ukraine 54.5%). Therefore, the majority of the Jews of that time supported the Zionism conception, which due to miseries and pogroms of the Civil War resulted the considerable emigration and the repatriation to the Palestine.
In the end of 1918 the members of the Russian "He-Haluz" started the Third Alijah, where the newcomers from the Russian Empire formed 44.5% (around 20 thousands people); the majority of the others came from the regions that had been the parts of the Russian Empire before (Poland, Bessarabia (Moldova) and oth.).
In spite of the rout of the main Zionist organizations in the end of the 20ies , the Alijah from the USSR went on till 1936 (in 1925-26 - 8157 people, in 1927-36 - 3145 people).
In the 1920ies and especially in the 1930ies more than 100 thousands Jews from the Eastern Galicia and Western Volyn' (the Rivne and Luts'k regions, the Western Ukraine) repatriated to the Palestine or emigrated to the USA, Canada, Argentina, Australia and others countries.
The number of the Jewish population of the Bukovina (the Chernovtsy region) decreased from 128 thousands in 1924 to 93 thousands in 1930, of the Bessarabia (Moldova) - from 238 thousands to 207 thousands.
About 10 thousands Jews of the Transcarpatian (the Mukachevo region) repatriated in 1918-1938 to the Erez-Israel.

4.

The following interesting stage of emigration and repatriation that concern Ukraine most of all is the time between the deliverance by the Soviet Army from the German occupation the territory of Ukraine and the restoration of the western post-war border. A lot of the inhabitants of the Western Ukraine survived in the Holocaust remembering the short but active soviet period in 1939-1941 chose the repatriation to the Palestine and got it via Romania, Hungary, and Poland in spite of many difficulties.
From the 10th of October 1944 till the 15th of September 1946 30 408 Jews crossed the Ukrainian-Polish border; the majority of them intended to use the opportunity existing in that period of time to leave legally Poland for the Erez-Israel, the USA or the Western Europe countries.
In Chernovtsy region 17 461 Jews received the permission to cross the border with Romania before the 1st of May 1946.
From 1944 the "Briha" emissaries worked in the Western regions of the USSR; they helped thousands Jews to leave the USSR and get the Erez-Israel. In the 1st half of 1946 this operation was blocked by the KGB, its members were arrested and sentenced to different years' imprisonments.
The uncertainty concerning the country of exodus gives some confusion in the statistics of this period because the borders of the countries were changing actively during that time.

5.

After the State Israel was created the streams of repatriants from the whole world flooded there. Nevertheless because of the specific situation in the USSR aggravated with the "fighting with cosmopolitism", the "soviet" part of the repatriation of this time was scanty in spite of the large number of the Jews inspired with the creation of the State and desiring to take part in its defense and work. Only 8 163 Jews repatriated to Israel from the USSR (from Ukraine - 2.5 - 3 thousands) between 15.05.1948 and 1951 according to the Israeli Statistics.
After the Knesset passed the "Low about Return" the new repatriation era started, though the things almost didn't change. Nevertheless, in spite of the "lock on the border" 13 743 Jews came to Israel from the USSR (4-5 thousands - from Ukraine) between 1952 and 1960.
The ruling of Khrushchev gave new hopes for repatriation to the Ukrainian Jews.
By the autumn of 1956 the number of the applications for the departure for Israel was doubled: in 1951 the officials received only one such application, in 1955 - 315, in the first 9 months of 1956 - 1260. The first Jews-"rejected" appeared in Ukraine: from 774 applications regarded in 1956 the officials rejected 616 .
One of the main repatriation directions of this period became the "Polish channel". After the agreement signed between Nikita Khrushchev and Vladislav Gomulka in 1956 the past citizens of Poland having stayed due to different reasons after the Second World War on the territory of the USSR could repatriate legally to Poland. The considerable part of this group was the past Polish Jews (10 %). Some of them stayed in Poland afterwards but the rest followed further including Israel. Not only past Polish citizens used this "channel" but also the considerable groups of the Jews from the Baltic Republics and the other parts of the USSR. The total number of the Jews having repatriated via the "Polish channel" is around 20 thousands from 250 thousands past Polish citizens who came to Poland from the USSR in 1956 - 1959. As in the previous years it's difficult today to determine which state was noticed as the country of the exodus: Poland or the USSR.
In spite of a lot of rejects for the permissions to repatriate the Jews of Ukraine went on their efforts in the beginning of the 60ies. The religious families in the Western Ukraine, the Baltic, the Georgia were especially persistent. For the period 1961 - 1969 from the USSR to Israel 6646 Jews (2-3 thousands - from Ukraine) repatriated.
For the next period 1965 - 1969 10 899 people from the USSR (3.5-4 thousands - from Ukraine) went to Israel.

6.

The investigations made by the English journalist Emanuel Litvinov in the middle of the 70ies, give us more full and correct picture of emigration from the USSR to Israel from 1968 till 1976.
After the Israel's victory in the 6-days War the Jews of the USSR seeing the end of reforms began mass applying to the governments asking to leave for Israel under the pretexts of reunion of families. Applying the documents for leaving and the next actions to organize the departure were followed with numerous problems and humiliations. Very often they left the future emigrants without job, they excluded them from the Universities and the Arts Unions and, therefore, the future emigrants stayed without main livelihood one - one and a half year before departure. The problems increased much more in case of refuse. In the beginning of the 80ies 40 thousands Jews-"refused" were in the USSR.

The delivery of the visas for leaving for Israel in the USSR republics (1968-1976) - see in the attachment 4-1.

Table 2. The delivery of the visas for leaving for Israel in the USSR republics (1968-1976 yy.)

The table 4-1 shows the features of the Jewish emigration from the USSR in the 70ies. Three groups of the republics attract the attention: the first one from where the emigration percent was the biggest and considerably exceeded (2 - 8 times) the portion of the Jewish population of these republics in the USSR (Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia, Georgia); the second group, where the emigration percent was approximately correspondent to the portion of the Jews (Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Estonia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Armenia); and the third one is the one where the emigration percent was much less (2 - 10 times) than the portion of the Jewish population (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenia). On our opinion, such difference is explained with the trivial reasons: the time of the Soviet Power in the republic, the national and the local politics towards the emigration of the Jews in the republic, the availability of the information about Israel, the religiousness of the Jewish population, the cumulative moral the "emigration potential".
The following table gives us the picture about the real departure from the USSR to Israel and the other countries in the 70ies, because, firstly, not all the ones who got permission for emigration have emigrated in fact, secondly, due to the different reasons the ratio of emigrants and repatriants during the 70ies was considerably changed.

Table 3. The Jewish emigration and repatriation from the USSR (1968 - 1976)

It was the Yom-Kippur War (October 1973) hard though victorious for Israel that caused the distinctly decreasing of the level of emigration and repatriation in 1973 - 1974. In this table we can see how and when the emigrants from the USSR "found out" the opportunity following via Vena to leave Europe for the USA (mainly) and the other countries and not to arrive at Israel. Israeli terminology called such emigrants "noshrim" or "neshira". This occurrence become considerable by 1973 and gradually got the way of the snow avalanche. By 1976 the number of repatriants and "noshrim" become equal.
The portion of the "noshrim" in the total emigration from the city (1968 - 1976):
Odessa - 93.6%
Kharkov - 86.0%
Kiev - 80.0 %
L'vov - 72.5% Moscow - 71.3%
Leningrad (Sankt-Petersburg) - 69.7%
Kishinev - 15.5%
Chernovtsy - 8.9%

Problems, following emigrants in the period of the preparation for departure, the big number of the "Refused", the Yom-Kippur War resulted the fact that the big part of the Jews of the Jews even having got the invitation from Israel decided not to apply documents for arrival. Only half of the 320 thousands got invitations were used during those years.
The distinctly decreasing of the repatriation level after 1973 shows that the opinion about the high "national motivation" of emigration of the 70ies was overstated.
Nevertheless, we have to notice that after the distinctly decreasing of the total level of emigration and repatriation over the USSR due to the Yom-Kippur War the proportions between the republics had been changed in favour of the Jews of Ukraine. The portion of Ukraine in the total emigration was 23% in 1968 - 1972, 39% in 1975 and 46% in 1976. On our opinion it can be explained by the factors that the almost all those who composed the "first turn" of the emigration potential left the very "active" but few-populated republics by the middle of the 70ies. In Ukraine it could be related with Bukovina (Chernovtsy) and Transcarpatia (Mukachevo). But by the middle of the 70ies the less "nationally motivated" Jews from the big cities (high number of the Jews) like Moscow and Leningrad, Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa, began to join emigration. This resulted not only big contribution of these cities in emigration but also in "neshira".

Table 4. Departure from cities (1968 - 1976)

The analysis of the data in the table 4 shows that 71% (94 thousands) of all the Jews and the members of their families, who emigrated after the 6-days War from the USSR, came from 20 cities (mainly the capitals of the republics). In come cases it was considerable part of the all Jewish population of these cities (Vilnius, Kaunas, Chernovtsy, Samarkand, Riga). Chernovtsy "lost" one third of all the Jews during this period of time.

Table 5. Jewish emigration and repatriation from the USSR and Ukraine (1968 - 1980)

The data about Ukraine are got by the method of extrapolation and, therefore, are approximate.
The government of the USSR decided to cancel the Jewish emigration by the end of the 70ies, and for this reason before "closing" emigration that had been planned by the Olympic Games in Moscow they tried to "move out" from the USSR the bigger part of the emigration potential that had been accumulated for the previous years (1979 - 46408 people, two times more than in 1978). Together with the emigration active a lot of dissidents pressed by the Soviet officials left using the Israeli invitations, because for them the only alternative for departure was jail.
Due to the almost unlimited potential the Soviet Power nearly stopped emigration but they didn't stop the stream of applications to the OVIR (the Soviet visa Department). It was mentioned before that in the beginning of the 80ies as the result of the described processes the number of the "Refused" increased distinctly and reached 40 thousands people. Only part of the "Refused" of the 70ies was released, the rest had to wait for the start of the "Perestroika".

Table 6. Jewish emigration and repatriation from the USSR and Ukraine in the 1980ies

7.

The analysis of the table 6 and the additional information give us the following results:
- in the 80ies the portion of the "noshrim" is two times more than in the 70ies;
- in this period the Jews of Ukraine "dropped out" of repatriation in the same measure as the Jews of the USSR in whole;
- the decreasing of the portion of the "noshrim" in the emigration of 1987 could be explained, obviously, with the fact that in this time the large emigration started and, therefore, the "Refused" of the 70ies were the first ones released from the USSR;
- the maximal "neshira" was in December 1988 when only 4% of the all Jewish emigrants from the USSR came to Israel.
In 1968 - 1988 more than 100 thousands Jews of Ukraine and their families members emigrated (mainly to Israel, and also to the USA, Canada, Australia, Germany and other countries) that was 12-13% of the whole number.

8.

Obviously that processes which were started in the USSR in the second half of the 80ies had big influence on the emigration of the Jews. Moreover, the emigration potential accumulated for the previous "refusing" period, the social-economical crises following the "Perestroika" and the collapse of the USSR, the distrust of the most of the population for current processes and perspectives - all the noticed causes resulted the huge migration streams in the end of the 80ies and the beginning of the 90ies. Besides the Jews the other ethnic groups joined the movement.

Table 7. The biggest ethnic groups of emigrants left Ukraine in 1991 - 1999

We can say that for the Jews and their families' members the 90ies is the period of the quasi-free emigration because there have not been any limitations for emigration of the Jews from the government's site in Ukraine. Emigration was influenced only by the powerful social-economical and political factors inside of Ukraine and directions of emigration has been regulated by the politics of the receiving countries.
In the end of the 80ies and beginning of the 90ies the group of factors such as the distinct increasing of the emigration, the direct flights to Israel, the initiatives of the Israeli government resulted the distinct decreasing of the "neshira" and, consequently the increasing of repatriation.
Regarding the emigration level the 90ies are comparable with the correspondent period of the end of XIX - beginning of XX centuries, but nowadays the opposite occurrences happen also in the range of the ethnic groups. Therefore, the absolute figures don't give the correct picture about the character and the relative migration activity. Let's try the concept "migration balance" as the disparity between immigration and emigration.

Table 8. The characters of the migration balance in the different ethnic groups of Ukraine

Table 9. The emigration dynamics factors (the ratio of the number of emigrants to the number of the correspondent ethnic group in 1989) of some ethnic groups in Ukraine for 1991 - 1999

9.

Social surveys of the Jewish population of Ukraine concerning their opinions on the possible emigration have been made some times for the 90ies. Particularly the investigations of the Jewish Scientific Center (JSC - Moscow) were made twice with 5 years break, that shows us the dynamics of changing the attitude of the Jews of Ukraine for the different aspects of emigration.

Table 11. The intentions of the Jews of Ukraine concerning the possible emigration

This table shows that for the last 5 years (1993 - 1998) the portion of the Jewish population of Ukraine desiring to emigrate has decreased in 1.3 times (from 51% to 38.8%) and correspondently in the same measure the portion of the ones desiring to stay has decreased (from 47.7% to 59.3%). Taking in account the total decreasing of the number of the Jewish population this fact means that the absolute number of the Jews desiring not to emigrate stays the approximately the same.
On our opinion decreasing of the pos. 5, 6 is explained with simplifying and shortening in time of the regarding documents procedure and of preparations for leaving, and also decreasing the total "emigration potential", i.e. the number of the Jewish population.
Positions 5 and 6 describe those who fulfill their intentions in the nearest year for it's mentioned not about intentions but about making documents and preparations for leaving.

Table 12. Reasons of emigration of the Jews of Ukraine

Analysis of this table shows the following facts:
· for the past 5 years economical motivation (pos.1+pos.3) of emigration increased from 51.8% to 58.5%, remaining high percent of those who doesn't believe in the possibility of improving life in Ukraine;
· national motivation (pos.4+pos.5) of emigration decreased from 31% to 20.7%. It could be explained that the more "motivated" ones left in the first years of the big emigration (middle of the 80ies);
· Anti-Semitism as the emigration reason moved from the 2nd place in 1993 to 4th in 1998, that shows rather the baselessness of the fears among the Jews in the first years of independence than the objective characteristic of the Anti-Semitism factor;
· stable low percent of those who wants to live in the national (religious) living;
· distinctly (more than 1.5 times) increasing of the pos.3 shows that the portion of those who want to have "civilized" living has grown for the past 5 years.

Table 13. Directions of desired emigration of the Jews of Ukraine

Three countries - Israel, the USA and Germany remain the main directions of leaving. The stable high level of those who want to go to Israel but the radical changes have happened among those who want to go to the USA for according to the existing rules the arrival is allowed only for the "Jews-refugees" who have close relatives in the USA. Those who don't have relatives partly chose Germany as the emigration country where the arrival for the Jews has been simplified for the 90ies. The rest formed the "difficult to say" group.
From November 1995 till February 1996 the Israeli Sociologist Nadya Zinger asked by the "Sochnut" made the investigation "Tendencies of the repatriation from Russia and Ukraine". Below you can see the main results of the investigation.
28% of the interrogated ones in Russia and 38% in Ukraine informed about their intention to emigrate from the CIS.
The main motives for decision to emigrate from Ukraine are: the fear of economical instability (36%), unbelieving in the possibility of changing current situation (31%), desire to improve the future of children (26%), the ecological situation (15%).
The main motives for decision not to emigrate: strong tie with the original country (44%), age reasons (21%), good job (20%), fear of decreasing his status on job and in society (20%).
30% of the total number of those who want to emigrate from Ukraine (11% of the total number of interrogated) would like to repatriate to Israel, 41% - to the USA and Canada, 13% - to Germany.
31% of the interrogated ones have close relatives in Israel.

10.

Table 14. Emigration from Ukraine to the countries outside the CIS (different nationalities)

The fact that to the USA and Germany the less assimilated Jewish families go than to Israel shows only the difference in conditions of Jewish emigration to these countries. So, for example, arrival to Germany is allowed only for the "Refugees" who have at least one Jewish parent, to enter to the USA it's necessary to have direct relatives what also decreases the portion of the assimilated Jews in emigration while the Israeli low allows to enter to Israel even for the "Jews" in third generation.
Also from the table 2-1 we can see that though the portion of the Jews of Ukraine in the past USSR (33.6%) their portion in repatriation to Israel waves with big amplitude from 19.4% in 1993 to 44.1% in 1997 what had been resulted on our opinion by the group of factors: not the same economical and political development of the countries of the past USSR, not equal start conditions of emigration, different level of being informed, different accumulated by the beginning of the 90ies the "emigration potential". So, from the range of the countries of Caucasus and the Central Asia left bigger portions of the Jewish population than from the Slavic and Baltic countries. In total, the portion of emigrants from Ukraine to Israel approximately correspondents the portion of the Jewish population of Ukraine in the USSR in 1989 and is 31.7%.

11.

Arrival of the Jews to Ukraine for the permanent living is quite rare occurrence but let us investigate this also.

Table. 15 Jewish and German immigration to Ukraine with allocation according to nationalities (1994 - 1999

In the table 15 we can see the data of official immigration but on our opinion the real immigration has been 2-3 times more.
More than 40% of immigrants from the developed countries in the regarded context are the re-emigrants from Israel what were resulted first of all by the family problems (divorces), unsuccessful absorption or by the desire to live and have business in the big (though not prosperous) "market" of Ukraine.
As result immigration from the developed countries is 5-6% of emigration from Ukraine to these countries.
It's very difficult to value immigration to Ukraine due to the limit of the correspondent statistics. Particularly, on our opinion, in the end of the 80ies - beginning of the 90ies the flow of the "Jewish emigrants" from Russia is much more than extrapolated figures in the table 15.
Let's look at the following chart (picture 1). The lower line of the chart characterize changes in the emigration speed of the "kernel of the Jewish population", the upper line - of the "enlarged population". We can see clearly how by years the distance between the lines increases what shows growing of the "being assimilated" in emigration, i.e. increasing in the "Jewish emigration" the people of mixed origin and the family members-non-Jews.

Picture 1. "Jewish emigration" and emigration of the Jews from Ukraine (1989 - 1999)

The number of the emigrants is tens and hundreds thousands having two picks during this period. The first pick takes place in 1990-1991 when the last limitations for leaving Ukraine were canceled, the second one - in 1994 when there was the economical crisis and hiper-inflation reached the top. The stability of the "Jewish emigration" level from Ukraine in the following years proves that the economical crisis goes on and is not temporary event. The decreasing of the number of the Jews in the stable "Jewish emigration" after 1994 proves first of all that the more and more assimilated families are being involved in the emigration.
The pick of the "Jewish emigration" in 1990-1991 illustrates the "dam effect" when the accumulated during the Soviet time desire to emigrate that couldn't be satisfied due to the strict position of the Soviet government after the Moscow Olympic Games in Summer 1980 forced its way through with the big flow of emigrants in the end of the 80ies. The flow decreased by 1993 in the natural way and left the defined for Ukraine for the following years the volume of annual emigration in the outside CIS countries on the level 42-43 thousands emigrants a year.

12.

Looking at the age allocation we can see that it's the young and middle-aged people who emigrate first of all among both the Jews and other ethnical groups. It results that it's the declining years old people who prevail in the age structure of the Jews staying in Ukraine.

Table 16. Age structure of the Jewish emigration from the CIS and Ukraine to Israel

The emigration to Israel in the described period of time went unevenly in time and in geography. We can say that beginning from 1989 the emigration developed in the "fan" way; beginning from the Western Regions of Ukraine and then via the center of the country moved to the South-East.
The data of the Ministry of Absorption of Israel given in the appendix 5 don't allow to get the exact picture in the regions of Ukraine due to some reasons but point on the features of the geographical allocation of this emigration.

13.

Comparing the data about the "Jewish emigration" from Ukraine from the different sources particularly, from the Ministry of Absorption of Israel and the State Committee of Statistics of Ukraine we can calculate the level of the illegal part in the "Jewish emigration " to Israel.

Table 17. Illegal "Jewish emigration" to Israel (1989 - 1999)

The reasons of the illegal emigration of the "Jewish tourists", on our opinion are the following:
- comparative simplicity of the naturalization in Israel for persons of Jewish origin, covered with the "Return Low";
- family problems, when the staying part of a family prevents the one who wants to go due to material or personal reasons;
- bureaucracy in the making documents process in Ukraine;
- the fear before possible refuse because of the past activity in the "closed" ("secret") establishments;
- probably, the fear before criminal persecution.

In the last years the government of Israel in different ways has embarrassed naturalization in Israel for the "Jewish tourists" what resulted some decreasing of the illegal immigration in 1998-1999.

14.

Besides Israel the Jews of Ukraine emigrate also to the USA and Germany. The agreement of 1991 between the federal chancellor G. Kol and the president of the Central Council of the Jews Galinsky has become the legal basement for leaving of the Jews for Germany. It granted to the Jews of the past USSR the possibility for emigration. Since this agreement needed to be given the legal basement in the German lows and the Jewish emigrants couldn't be covered neither by the Low about Foreigners nor by the Low about giving political refuge, so this category of emigrants was described as refugees. This category of the "Jews-refugees" got a legal right to settle in Germany immediately for the permanent living. They receive German citizenship after 8 years living in the country.
It was suggested that the emigrants' flow would fulfill two following tasks: firstly, the Jewish communities of Germany will increase, secondly, Germany will make good gesture towards the ethnical and religious community, which suffered of discrimination in the USSR. Naturally, third task have been taken in account as the redemption by Germany of the guilty before the Jews for their persecution by Nazis.
The agreement didn't fix how many thousands of the Jews-"refugees" Germany would accept annually. Nevertheless, for the last years have been showing that Germany accept annually around 15-16 thousands of the Jews from the post-USSR countries. Around 7-8 thousands Jews annually arrive in Germany from Ukraine. Therefore, for 1991-1999 around 60 thousands of Jews have left Ukraine for Germany.
To analyze the "Jewish emigration" of the past decade to the main countries let's gather the data from different sources in the one table.

Table 18. The "Jewish emigration" from Ukraine (1989 - 1999)

The comparison with the results of the investigation of the JNC (see above) shows that desires of the Jews of Ukraine where to emigrate fulfill partly, i.e. those who hadn't been able to emigrate to the USA, Canada or Australia, emigrated to Israel because this way turned out to be much simpler. The desires and the real emigration to Germany and Russia are coincident.
How it was noticed before, the Jewish emigration from Ukraine to Israel gives about one third of the correspondent emigration from the CIS and Baltic countries, but if we look at the correspondent data for the USA and Germany we'll see that the Jewish emigration from Ukraine to the USA is about 40% of the total emigration from the past-USSR countries and to Germany is about 50%.
Due to lack of the data we can't estimate exactly the number of the illegal "Jewish emigrants" from Ukraine to the USA and, especially, to Germany but we have to notice that in the end of the 80ies - beginning of the 90ies when the correspondent statistics was absent thousands people from Ukraine emigrated to Germany. Part of them having left Ukraine with the "Israeli visas" in the middle of the way turned to the other countries, mainly to the USA and Germany.

15.
The analysis of the table 18 and the picture 1 give us the following conclusions. After the pick of the Jewish emigration in 1994 due to worsening the social-economical crisis in Ukraine (Summer, 1993) for the following 5 years we can observe the line decreasing of the annual volumes of emigration. It means that the resulting action of all external factors influencing emigration has stabilized. Only one internal factor has begun to influent the "capacity of the flow" and it is the number of the "Jewish population", i.e. the number of the "enlarged population".
Using different ways of calculations we can define that the number of the "Jewish population" was around between 603 and 636 thousands people in 1996 and around 523 thousands people in the beginning of 1999.

16.

Let us compile all our data about the Jewish emigration from Ukraine from the end of XIX cent. in one table.

Table 19. The Jewish emigration from Ukraine (1881 - 1999) (thousands people)

Conclusions and the attempt of forecast

Every wave of emigration takes away from Ukraine the considerable part of its Jewish population. For 120 years more than 1.5 millions Jews and their families members have left Ukraine. From the one of most populated by the Jews country Ukraine has been becoming the country with not large Jewish population. With the end of XX century the whole era in the history of the Jews of Ukraine has been finishing. In the new millennium in contrast to the previous one the presence of the Jews will not almost any influence on the life of Ukraine.
The last wave of emigration (1989 - 2000) with continues even today has taken away about a half of the "enlarged population" of the Jews of Ukraine, whose kernel was counted as 487 thousands people in 1989.
Decreasing the portion of the Jews in repatriation stopped on the level 30-31%, in the whole emigration - 34-35% and obviously will not decrease considerably further.
High rate of the emigration have resulted the considerable changes of the age structure of the Jewish population and also the fact that in small towns and villages of Ukraine where about a half of the Jewish population lived before there will not stay any Jew in the period of one generation.
After 5-7 years in case of relative stabilization of the economical situation we will see decreasing the annual average emigration level from 30-35 thousands to 15-20 thousands.
Therefore in the following decade about 250 thousands people from the Jewish "enlarged population", i.e. about a half of her current number, will leave Ukraine.
Taking in account that for the previous decade Ukraine has lost about a half of the number of the "enlarged population" of the end of the 80ies (there were about 1.2 - 1.3 millions in 1989) we can introduce the term "half-exodus" as the time period when the "enlarged population" of Ukraine decreased in two time. Following this the "half-exodus" period in the end of XX - beginning of XXI centuries is about 10 years.
The immigration including the re-emigration of the Jews and their families' members to Ukraine goes on the level 5-6% of emigration and in the nearest years on our opinion will stay on the same level or will increase non considerably.
In case of the non considerable improving of the social-economical situation in Ukraine not sooner than after 25 - 30 years we'll be able to observe the situation when the annual flows of emigrants and re-emigrants will become equal and the number of the "enlarged population" will become stable on the level of 120 - 130 thousands people with the "population kernel" will be around 35-40 thousands. The re-emigrants will form the considerable part of the "enlarged population" (30-40%).